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Numerous academic studies have demonstrated the potential benefit of integrating managed futures programs within stock- and/or bond-based portfolios to enhance returns through broad-based diversification. The elemental principles of proper portfolio diversification are embraced in what has come to be known as “Modern Portfolio Theory.”

Managed futures have been documented as investment vehicles offering relatively low levels of correlation when compared with the performance of equity and fixed income investments. In fact, one of the most uncorrelated of investments is managed futures programs under the direction of professional money managers, aka CTAs.

The value of professionally managed futures within the context of a well-balanced investment portfolio was thoroughly researched by Dr. John Lintner, of Harvard University, in his 1983 landmark study, “The Potential Role of Managed Futures Accounts in Portfolios of Stocks and Bonds.” According to Lintner, “…the combined portfolios of stocks (or stocks and bonds) after including judicious investments...in leveraged managed futures accounts show substantially less risk at every possible level of expected return than portfolios of stocks (or stocks and bonds) alone.  Lintn-

Modern Portfolio Theory
   

er’s work demonstrated how managed futures can potentially decrease portfolio risk while, simultaneously, enhancing overall portfolio performance. However, there is no guarantee that an investor will receive the same or similar returns trading managed futures as shown below.

The foregoing studies strongly support Dr. Lintner's conclusions. The illustrations below are excerpts taken out of the Modern Portfolio Theory Booklet and attempt to illustrate the benefit of adding managed futures investments in a stock and bond portfolio.


 

As you can clearly see in Graph#1, portfolios with as much as 20% in managed futures may potentially yield up to 50% more than stock and bond portfolios, while having comparable risk.

Source: Chart derived from statistics presented in the Chicago Merchantile Exchange's Q&A Reports on Managed Futures. 1993 edition page 4


 

Annualized Standard Deviation
Graph #2, exhibited in the 2006 edition of “Portfolio Diversification Opportunities,” published by the Chicago Board of Trade, shows that a portfolio without managed futures underperforms and is more risky than a portfolio that includes managed futures. The portfolio that exhibited the highest returns and least volatility, comprised 37.5% stocks,37.5% bonds, and 25% managed futures.

Source: Barclay Trading Group, Ltd., Managed Futures: CTA Index; Lehman Brothers Long –Term Treasury Index; Stocks; S&P 500 Total Return Index

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of substantial loss exists in futures trading.

   
 

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Clients may lose more than their initial investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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